Page 65 - enLIGHTenment December 2016

2017 Forecast

A

ccording to the hous- reaching retirement age and the start of Millen-
ing forecasts from the nials entering the workforce. The 76 million Baby

National Association of Boomers who were so highly in uential on the
REALTORS® (NAR), the U.S. economy for years as the largest generation

Mortgage Bankers’ As- in America are now surpassed by the Millennial
sociation (MBA), plus Freddie Mac and Fannie generation. However, these two groups’ buying

Mae, existing home sales are estimated to rise habits couldn’t be further apart.

in 2017. This means remodeling projects — which According to the National Association of Home
hopefully will involve lighting — will continue to
Builders (NAHB), Boomers are more active than

be strong in the months ahead.
Strong gains in home renovation and repair

spending are expected to continue into 2017 “Homeowner remodeling activity

before tapering, according to the Leading Indica-
tor of Remodeling Activity (LIRA) released in late continues to be encouraged by

October by the Remodeling Futures Program at
the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard rising home values and tightening

University. The LIRA projects that annual growth for-sale inventories in many markets

in home improvement and repair expenditures
will continue to increase, surpassing eight per- across the country.”

cent by the second quarter of 2017 before
moderating later in the year.
— Chris Herbert, Managing Director of the Joint Center for Housing
“Homeowner remodeling activity continues
Studies of Harvard University
to be encouraged by rising home values and
tightening for-sale inventories in many markets

across the country,” says Chris Herbert, Manag-
ing Director of the Joint Center. “Yet, a recent

slowdown in the expansion of single family ToTal Single Family Home SaleS

homebuilding and existing home sales could pull
remodeling growth o its peak by the second
PROJECTIONS (IN MILLIONS)  2016  2017
half of 2017.”
“Even as remodeling growth trends back
6.5
down, levels of spending are expected to reach

new highs by the third quarter of next year,” says
Abbe Will, Research Analyst in the Remodeling
6.2
6.2
6.2
Futures Program at the Joint Center. “At $327 6.1
billion annually, the homeowner improvement
6
and repair market will surpass its previous in a- 5.9

tion-adjusted peak from 2006.”
5.8
The NAR is predicting home sales (excluding

new construction) to reach 6 million in 2017 (an
increase from the 5.8 million estimated for this

past year) while Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac

are anticipating 6.2 million. The MBA is the most
optimistic with its prediction of 6.5 million home

sales in the coming year.
Meanwhile, new home construction starts are
naR Fannie mae FReddie mac mBa
projected to rise approximately 1.5 million per

year through 2024, according to an estimate
released by Forisk Research.
The National Association of Realtors, The Mortgage Bankers’ Association, Freddie
Mac and Fannie Mae are all projecting that home sales will increase in 2017.
One of the most signi cant factors a ecting
homebuying is the beginning of Baby Boomers

DeceMber 2016 | enLIGHTenment Magazine 63