Page 72 - Lighting Magazine December 2017

forECast 2018 | construction report
“Overall, the year 2018 is likely
to show some construction project types register gains while other project types se le back, with the end result being a 3-percent increase for total construction starts.
70 enLIGHTenment magazine | december 2017
www.enlightenmentmag.com
“The U.S. construction industry has moved into a mature stage of expansion,” states Robert Mur- ray, chief economist for Dodge Data & Analytics. “A er rising 11 to 13 percent per year from 2012 through 2015, total construction starts advanced a more subdued 5 percent in 2016. An important question entering 2017 was whether the con- struction industry had the potential for further expansion. Several project types, including multi- family housing and hotels, have pulled back from their 2016 levels, but the current year has seen continued growth by single-family housing, o ce buildings, and warehouses.
“For 2018, there are several positive factors which suggest that the construction expansion has further room to proceed,” Murray adds. “The U.S. economy next year is anticipated to see moder- ate job growth. Long-term interest rates may see some upward movement, but not substantially. While market fundamentals for commercial real estate won’t be quite as strong as this year, fund- ing support for construction will continue to come from state and local bond measures,” he remarks.
“Overall, the year 2018 is likely to show some con- struction project types register gains while other project types se le back, with the end result be- ing a 3-percent increase for total construction starts. By major sector, gains are predicted for residential building, up 4 percent; and nonresi- dential building, up 2 percent; while nonbuilding construction stabilizes a er two years of decline.”
esTImaTed acTIvITy by seGmenT
 Single-family housing will rise 9 percent in dollars, corresponding to a 7-percent increase in units to 850,000 (Dodge basis). Continued employment growth has eased some of the cau- tion shown by potential homebuyers, while older Millennials in their 30s are helping to li demand for single-family housing. A modest boost will also come from rebuilding e orts in Texas and Florida a er Hurricanes Harvey and Irma.
Multifamily housing will decline 8 percent in dollars and 11 percent in units to 425,000 (Dodge basis). This project type appears to have peaked