Page 31 - Lighting Magazine September 2019

What’s Aheadnfor 2019?nconstruction industry forecasts are cautiously optimistic.nBY MARY JOndesigned to help related businesses stay ahead of the changing economic landscape — but rather than having you spend valuable time hunting them all down, we did it on your behalf. In this article, we’re sharing some of the more relevant data from reliable sources to help you navigate the road ahead in 2019.nHome Prices UP, AffordAbility downnEarlier this year the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) predicted the economy would continue strengthening and that 30-year xed- rate mortgages will average 4.82 percent in 2019, slightly higher than their forecast of 4.31 percent for 2018. NAHB also forecasts an additional 5-per- cent increase in single-family start-up builds. Each of those 940,000 predicted homes will need lighting, plumbing, and décor. Have you been keep- ing an eye on the local developments in your area and partnering with builders?nDrilling down further on those numbers, whilenThe Forecasting can sometimes seem like a Numerous organizations publish annual datanroll of the dice, but fortunately there are people all over the world who have turned the science of forecasting into an art form.nProjecting what’s ahead, how, and when has several moving parts. These economic experts are constantly studying a wide range of signs, movements, and reactions to compare with historical data and pa erns. Before they roll out any forecasting, they know it’s got to have a very high probability of being correct because their reputations – and their clients’ businessesn– are at stake.nTo produce forecasts for the lighting industry,nMARTIN these are just a few of the variables studied by economists:n8 Real estate and construction trendsn8 The impact of technology on industries 8 Demographic trendsn8 Industry-speci c trendsn8 Earnings trendsnJanuary 2019 | enLIGHTenment MagazIne 29n