Page 36 - Enlightenment Magazine - July 2013
P. 36
Lights On!
Based on Innovation is taking place with the advent of print- as frst evident. This is because the use of multiple
LEDs in conjunction with waveguides is enabling
ing, grid materials, etc.
its most OLED lighting ofers high potential for large-area the efective realization of surface emission. At
likely emission, although current OLED production takes the same time, most OLED production today takes
place on Gen-2 substrates only. Similarly, OLED
place on Gen-2 substrates.
Form factor (mechanical fexibility) is ofen
scenario, lighting ofers good form factors, however, today claimed as a major selling point, too. Right now
most OLED lighting applications are made on rigid
IDTechEx glass. Nevertheless, OLED lighting is still embryonic. OLED technology falls short due to the encapsula-
It is, of course, important to add that LED light-
tion layers being based on glass, but progress on
forecast the ing development is far more mature and more fexible barriers for OLED displays is likely to help
money has been spent on it than OLED lighting.
this in the future. OLEDs also have the edge on
market will Recently many companies have become active in color warmth, low weight, and thinness.
The onus over the coming years is therefore likely
grow to OLED lighting and investment is increasing. For to be on luminaire/fxture designers who develop
example, we expect the active materials to experi-
$1.3 billion ence a fast cost-reduction rate. This is because of and sell niche products, capitalizing on improved
design parameters made available by OLEDs.
leverage from the OLED display industry and also
in 2023. because costs will scale with volume. This is difer-
ent from the other two layers since the demand is markEts
mostly driven by factors outside the OLED lighting The IDTechEx report ofers a broad, yet detailed,
space. Currently, active materials cost $350-$400/ overview of both LED and OLED lighting, going
m2, but expect this to fall to $70-$90/m2 in 2023. through fabrication processes, material composi-
The growth of the OLED display industry will tions, technology roadmaps, and key players. The
aid the OLED lighting sector with cheaper, higher device atributes of each technology are also
performance devices over time with some over- critically assessed, examining parameters such
lap in supply chains. The challenges faced in OLED as color warmth and controllability, fexibility, ef-
lighting applications will not be solved by the panel fciency, surface emission, lifetime, wafer size, and
manufacturers alone. luminaire design.
The report also ofers a blunt market assess-
DEsign factOrs ment. Detailed cost projection roadmaps are
FIGURE 2. The relative LED lighting is intrinsically a point source light, developed, factoring in estimated cost evolution
monetary contribution whereas OLED lighting is a surface emission device. of the integrated substrates, encapsulation layers,
of each lighting market
segment to the total OLED While OLED lighting is likely to have a competitive and materials. The changes in system confgura-
market 2013-2023 edge in design, its advantage is not as compelling tion and material composition required to enable
the cost roadmaps are outlined. Also factored in
are production costs including capital and labor.
Residential Ofce LED Shop A summary of the relative contribution of each
Hospitality Outdoor Architectural lighting market segment to the total OLED market
between 2013 and 2023 is shown in fgure 2.
2023
Based on its most likely scenario, IDTechEx
2022 forecast the market will grow to $1.3 billion in
2021
2023 and initially grow at a rapid rate of 40-50%
2020 annually, although the initial market base is very
2019 small. The market forecast is expressed in units
2018 of equivalent 60-wat incandescent bulbs. The
2017 company assessed the implications of its market
2016 forecast for the global capital investment and pro-
2015 duction capacity plus compare the market size to
2014 that of LEDs (including automotive, backplane, and
residential) at module level. Production capacities
2013
are also compared to further set out forecasts in
0% 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
prospective. For more details please see www.
SOURCE: IDTECHEX REPORT OLED VS LED LIGHTING. FULL DATA IS PROVIDED IN THE REPORT IDTechEx.com/oled.
34 enLIGHTenment Magazine | July 2013 www.enlightenmentmag.com
