Page 34 - Enlightenment Magazine - July 2013
P. 34
Lights On!
OLED vs LED Lighting:
Is there room for OLED lighting?
Research fnds that in a most likely forecast scenario, OLED
lighting will become a $1.3 billion market in 2023 equal to 1.3%
of the market size of LED lighting at that time.
By Dr. Norman Bardsley, Bardsley Consulting and
Dr. Khasha Ghafarzadeh, Senior Technology Analyst, IDTechEx
he new report by IDTechEx OLED vs LED package level (the LED chip encapsulated), while
Lighting 2013-2023 (www.IDTechEx.com/ OLED modules are still in the region of 20-50
Toled) fnds that OLED lighting will likely lm/W. The lifetime of LEDs far exceeds that of
struggle to defne and communicate its unique OLEDs. Indeed, LED lamps regularly ofer in excess
selling points and may remain an over-priced and of 50,000 hours, which is why they initially found a
under-performing option compared to LED lighting niche market in out-of-reach outdoor applications.
unless Apple-like design innovation occurs. OLED In contrast, OLED lighting ofers 5,000 to 15,000
lighting companies will inevitably have to capital- hours of operational life even when encapsulated.
ize on superior design features to carve out niche
markets in the hospitality, retail, and architectural cOst
sectors. Profts for panel makers will be squeezed LED lighting is also now low cost, selling at $5/klm
due to stif competition and value will migrate at package level (luminaires costs $20-$100/klm).
downstream to fxture/luminaire designers, who Contrast this with the price of OLED today; they
will be the demand creators. cost $300-$500/klm at panel level, excluding the
cost of fxture design, retail, installation, and proft
OLED Lighting PErfOrmancE tODay margins. The main cost drivers are the encapsula-
FIGURE 1. This radar chart OLED displays are growing quickly, but their light- tion layer (barrier, adhesive, and desiccant) and
compares atributes of ing counterparts are still actively trying to defne integrated substrates (transparent conductive
OLED and LED lighting. their unique selling points vis-à-vis LED lighting. layer, substrate, and out-coupling layer).
Today, they lag behind in terms of efciency. This In the current confguration, cavity glass is used
SOURCE: IDTECHEX REPORT
OLED VS LED LIGHTING
WWW.IDTECHEX.COM/OLED is because LEDs regularly ofer 90-100 lm/W at as the barrier. This is expensive because (a) ad-
ditional processing is required (sand blasting) to
OLED LED carve out a cavity, and (b) large glass manufacturers
are reluctant to commit production capacity given
Efciency the low demand. A change in system confguration
10 from, frst, cavity to frit glass and, second, from frit
8 glass to thin flm encapsulation is needed to drive
Lifetime 6 Cost the cost down. Today, encapsulation layers (includ-
4 Competitiveness ing desiccant and adhesive) cost $400-$500/m2.
2 The integrated substrate is also a substantial cost
0
driver. It includes the substrate (glass), transparent
conductive layer (mostly ITO), metal electrodes,
Large-Area Color planarization (all paterned by photolithography/
Emission etch) and external light extraction flm. The entire
Comfort
stack today costs $800-$900/m2 although this
Form Factor can be driven down to $100-$120/m2 in 2023.
32 enLIGHTenment Magazine | July 2013 www.enlightenmentmag.com
